This time, I shall concentrate on tech. This decade has seen huge changes in the world of technology. Microsoft introduced three operating systems; one okay (XP) one that was the very definition of sucking (Vista) and one that is actually pretty damn decent (7.) Apple returned to prominence, through the introduction of OS X (disclosure: I am a Mac user, and a proud card-carrying member of the Cult of Mac), a vastly superior operating system to OS 9. And also by introducing the iPod. The iPod simply changed everything. I think it could, and should be said that it was the success of the iPod which really saved Apple, and made it the Brand of Decade. People would still have bought Macs, especially those of us who love the platform, but the iPod introduced a much wider and more diverse audience to Apple’s products, many of whom may not have checked out a Mac before.
So much, though, has already been written about the impact of the iPod in the tech press in the past few weeks that I shall not say more. And now Apple is also dominating the smartphone market with the iPhone (despite AT&T’s efforts) and may soon also add the tablet market to the tally with the rumored upcoming tablet. This second market is still very much in the wait and see category.
And what of Google and social networking, you ask? This was the decade when Google rose up to challenge the tech giants, becoming one in the process. Hell, it became a fucking verb! Again, so much as already been said by others on each of these topics. I will not comment further here, except only to say the following: Google will continue to dominate and social networking will march forward, unabated. Now, to my predictions. Note, I already made a prediction about the 2010s being the Decade of Google in a previous post. I have not changed my mind on this, but I will not add it again here. Consider these 5 additional predictions. And so…..
1. Apple’s market share will grow to 15%. Now, as I mentioned above, I am a Mac user and damn proud of it. I do consider the Mac to be superior to the PC, OS X to be VASTLY superior to Windows, and I generally do not care for Microsoft at all. But I will say also clarify my membership in the Cult. I am a Mac Patriot, not a Mac Nationalist. I do not want the Mac’s market share to become that of Windows. I like it that those of us who use the Mac are part of a smaller, tighter community. But I fear our share of the market will grow. We will never be as widespread as Windows, and that is a good thing. There are two major factors which keep the Mac so damn safe: vastly superior code and small market size. No system, no matter how well conceived and written, is flawless. And if the Mac’s market share does increase to Windows-like levels, then the black hats will aim their weapons our way. We stand a much better chance of fighting them off than the Windows Bunch, I know, but that is the kind of attention no computer company wants. But, I think Apple’s market share will increase. The iPod and the iPhone are like gateway drugs, drawing in new converts. So, I predict a market share rise up to at least 15%, maybe a touch higher. But not beyond. Just as these other products will bring more people to the Mac, as well as Apple’s cool factor, Apple’s prices will still keep many from taking the plunge.
2. Cable vs. the Internet. As battles such as this become more and more common place, endangering people’s access to the shows and programming they enjoy, people will begin to turn more and more to the Internet. And not just the tech-savvy. Yes, the techies will lead the way, much as we always do, but the public at large will be right behind us, especially as streaming devices such as the Roku Box and Apple TV become more widely available. People will tell the cable companies to go frak (Battlestar Galactica reference, for those not in the know) themselves. Not to mention the popularity of DVD boxed sets. The only issues with streaming, especially in this country, remain broadband speed and access. Although access to broadband will increase in this decade, speed is another story altogether. Still, I think that people will continue to experience their favorite programming more and more online, as opposed to via the cable companies, at least scripted programming; sports remains a work in progress.
3. Google’s Chrome OS will revolutionize the operating system. Just not at first. I commented briefly on Google’s OS earlier this year, when Google first announced it would produce one. I think that Google will succeed with its new operating system, but not as first. It will only be available on netbooks to begin with, which is fine, since a netbook requires a small operating system footprint. Also, since the only thing netbooks are actually good for is surfing the web, having an operating system designed to work exclusively with web applications will be a bonus. More and more, people are living in the cloud, even if they are not yet aware of it, and I do not see that changing anytime soon. The question is whether or not Chrome OS will ever survive on the desktop. I think it will compete in this arena eventually, and will revolutionize the operating system as we know it. Could we be seeing the emergence of leased software? Living completely and totally in the Cloud? Look for Chrome OS to give Windows a run by mid-decade.
4. Everyone and their mother will produce an e-reader; most will fail. Here we come to one my greatest ironies: I hate e-readers. I do. I really do. I love the actual physical feel of a book. The cover art. The smell of the pages. The turning of the page. Yes, books are made of dead trees and take up a lot of space (especially in my library) and collect dust. But I do not care. I love books. This is why I have also always hated audio books. I enjoy the physical act of actually reading the words. When you listen to an audio book, you are listening to an audio book, not reading it. But anyway, this diatribe aside, I shall continue. As I said, I think everyone and their mother will introduce an e-reader. We already have the Sony E-reader, the Nook, the Kindle, books on iPhones. I fully expect Wal-Mart to introduce an e-reader. Target might as well. I would not be surprised to see Dell or HP get in the market as well. They will all have wireless connectivity. Each will access a book store of some kind. And most will suck. Really suck. I think it will still come down to the Kindle. Perhaps the only thing that could potentially challenge Amazon’s wonder device is the much-rumored Apple tablet. If/when the tablet does come into existence, I think it will provide a much better and cleaner experience, as most Apple products do. However, the price of the tablet, which most rumors have in the $700 to $900 dollar range will keep a lot of e-reader buyers from buying it. Geeks will buy it, of course, but the public at large? We shall see. The Kindle looks to continue to dominate here. I think also we shall see a rise in personalizing e-readers; names, sports logos, etc.
5. Desktop computing will still be with us by 2020. Laptops are cheaper and more powerful, and smartphones are spreading far and wide. But desktop computing will still be with us by 2020. No matter how powerful a laptops become, no matter how cheap and fast cellular service becomes, neither will replace the desktop. Yes, the desktop may eventually be folded into the concept of a house system, rather like in Tad Williams’ Otherland series, but the desktop will remain. Desktops are still more powerful, still faster, and still better for certain tasks (editing video and/or audio, gaming) than laptops. And there is no way in hell, at least currently, you can edit video or audio on a smartphone. I think people will own multiple computers, much as I do (desktop and laptop), and possibly carry a smartphone as well. But desktops are not going anywhere.
And there you are. My 5 tech predictions for the 2010s. I was thinking of also making a list of 5 people I wish would simply go the fuck away, but much peril that way might be. I would also need a much longer format for such a list. The world is, unfortunately, full of annoying people.
